Tropical Storm Grace forms overnight
August 14, 2021
Fred no longer a Tropical Depression; Grace less organized, but still a Tropical Storm
August 14, 2021
Tropical Depression Fred remains disorganized as it moves across Cuba. The eye has moved several times on a map as we continue to track its progress. The newest map shows Fred leaving Cuba and heading into Gulf waters, still as a depression. The forecast calls for strengthening once it passes the Florida Keys later today. The track has continues to dance westward, so far keeping Louisiana out of the dreaded cone. We will continue to monitor Fred through the weekend as it reaches Gulf waters.
At 8 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Depression Fred was located about 25 miles (40 km) west of Havana, Cuba, and about 125 miles (200 km) south-southwest of Key West, Florida. Fred is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue today. A turn to the northwest is expected by tonight, followed by a northward motion by Sunday night. On the forecast track, Fred is expected to pass west of the lower Florida Keys this afternoon, move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight through Monday, and move inland over the northern Gulf coast Monday night.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast to occur, and Fred could become a tropical storm again tonight or on Sunday.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge to the Dry Tortugas.Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the warning area later today. A tornado or two may be possible starting this afternoon across portions of central and southern Florida. Interests in Cuba and in the Florida peninsula and Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of Fred. Watches could be required for portions of the Florida panhandle and Alabama later today.
Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:
– Portions of Cuba…2 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. This rainfall may lead to scattered flash flooding.
– Across the Bahamas…1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches.
– Through Monday, 3 to 5 inches of rain with local amounts of 8 inches is anticipated across the Keys and southern Florida. Across the Florida Big Bend and Panhandle, 3 to 7 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches are expected. Heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding impacts, and cause new minor flooding across the western Florida Peninsula and exacerbate ongoing minor to isolated moderate flooding in northern Florida.
