A Democratic conundrum

The more conservative elements of the Republican Party started having convulsions after John McCain, the candidate they thoroughly disliked, won primaries in South Carolina and Florida, all but sealing the Republican nomination.

Hard-core conservatives in the GOP were despondent when Mitt Romney’s penchant for second-place finishes in the primaries finally knocked him out of the contest.

Pundits theorized that conservative Republican voters would become so de-energized that they would tune out the election and hand the White House keys to whichever Democrat secured the nomination.

A Democrat may still win the presidency, but the odds on that happening are not as strong as they were a number of weeks ago. The conventional wisdom held that when McCain secured the nomination, he would leave the media spotlight and become eclipsed by the Democrats – especially by the rising star of Obama. It is funny how things work out in politics.

As we move on from the Ides of March, McCain now holds solid leads over either Clinton or Obama in national polling, and he also has narrow leads in key states such as Ohio and Pennsylvania.

McCain is obviously a benefactor of the heated and divisive contest that continues between the Democrats.

It is obvious at this point that neither Clinton nor Obama will finish the primaries with enough delegates won to cinch the nomination. It is also rather obvious that Obama will have some margin of a lead heading to the convention. It is further obvious that Hillary Clinton does not plan to leave the race anytime soon.

The next big contest is in Pennsylvania, and Clinton is favored to win there, perhaps by double digits.

If that happens, Team Clinton will go into a furious push to convince the Super Delegates who will decide the race that she is the only hope to beat McCain.

Clinton will point to her victories in large states that are key to any Democratic hopes of winning the presidency, especially the crucial states of Ohio and Pennsylvania that are practically a must for Democrats to carry to take over the White House.

They will note that many of Obama’s victories came in states that the Republicans will likely carry in the fall.

Clinton will claim that older voters and women, who are keys to a Democratic victory, will lose their enthusiasm for the contest if she is not the nominee.

Obama, on the other hand, will make the case that if he is the leader in both the popular vote and the delegate count heading into the convention, the party will be ripped asunder if he does not emerge as the nominee.

In the meantime, McCain tours Iraq, Afghanistan, Israel and other nations in the Middle East looking very mature, savvy and presidential.

He will use the time before the conventions to convert as much of the conservative base of the party as he can.

Perhaps even more importantly, he will try to strengthen his hold on registered independents by fashioning himself as an interesting contrast to the intra-party strife going on in the Democratic ranks.

Six months is an eon in politics. Factors and issues unseen at the moment can rise quickly and transform an election campaign overnight.

But given the current trends in the election, the McCain camp must be very pleased with where they are.

The heated struggle between Clinton and Obama is not going to end soon.

The further it goes, the more McCain can benefit from it. In this case, being out of the spotlight may be a godsend.