LSU prof presents research plan to SCIA

Polite disappointment might best describe the mood as affiliates of the South Central Industrial Association left their membership meeting last Tuesday, following a research plan presentation made by LSU Associate Director of Economics Stephen Barnes.

Participating business leaders leaving the Quality Hotel ballroom suggested that they expected immediate concrete tools to help them develop the local workforce. They received an academic presentation that explained the plans and procedures of a LSU study being conducted for the state workforce commission and focused on predicted employment trends for the state through 2018.

“I’m going to be talking about occupational forecasts and revisions for data,” Barnes told the Tri-Parish Times as attendees arrived for the lunchtime meeting.

“There is no real time table for [the LSU study] I’m just looking at long-term effects,” Barnes said.

Opening his presentation to a filled room, Barnes said his focus would be on Louisiana’s anticipated occupational forecast based on past trends. He explained that state officials rely on those long-term occupational predictions for the setting of public policy.

Barnes explained that every two years the state puts out a new 10-year jobs forecast. “[Yet] because of the time it takes for data to become cleaned and processed and become available for research, [it means that] the most recent forecast we’ve got stops with data that ended in 2008. What I want to do [with the forecast from 2008 to 2018 is to talk about] things we do to improve on that historic data so you can have confidence that this is the most current assessment of data available,” he said.

According to Barnes, the most recent input, after adjustments were made by researchers for the yet to be completed forecast, included data received through June 2009.

“We are keeping the focus on 2018, but we are always looking [for] new information.”

The LSU researcher showed attendees a series of charts and graphs showing employment patterns from the 1980s and including post-Katrina drops in employment.

“I want to emphasize that the forecast is just a point – this is a target goal of where we want to be in 2018. It doesn’t tell us a whole lot about how to get there. It might be that we expect another year or two of stagnant conditions before we return to a pattern of growth.”

According to information shown by Barnes, the fastest growing occupations through 2018 for the bayou region, of which the LSU study model includes Terrebonne, Lafourche and Assumption parishes, are expected to take place in the personal and home health care industry at a growth level of 53.9 percent. The lowest growth level is predicted to come in landscaping jobs with a rate of 24.7 percent.

“The Houma forecast data is drawn from the unemployment insurance system, which covers about 96 percent of unemployment. So, this is a very comprehensive measure. Of course, some of the areas that this doesn’t cover well are small businesses,” he said.

Barnes admitted that there are questions related to the 2018 forecast. One being an unexpected drop in employment since the explosion of the Deepwater Horizon oil rig and subsequent oil spill. He also noted that there is no current data to show how the offshore drilling moratorium, which was lifted earlier this month, might have impacted overall employment levels.

“It remains unclear as to when we might return to a pattern of growth,” Barnes said. “[We also] want input from businesses around the state to determine patterns.”

“This is a very involved process, [but] we are serious about taking additional input [so] we can have something that adds up to reasonable expectations,” he said.

After Barnes completed his detailed program it became evident that the expectations of those in attendance had not been met.

A question and answer session following his presentation appeared to catch Barnes off balance when he attempted to field comments from attendees, some of which he admitted to having no answers.

“There is a lot of effort [shown here] by businesses and LSU … [but] what is the end result?” asked Weatherford director and SCIA leader Pat Seely.

Barnes said that other than it influencing public policy he did not have a concrete example.

SCIA administrator Jane Arnette said that she did not believe businesses outside the realms of academics or political decision-making were getting their biggest bang for the buck. “What are they doing for this part of the state?” she asked.

Barnes, again, said he really could not offer a specific answer.

The day’s speaker met additional questions from the floor with non-answers. Then area business leaders were dismissed to return to their work.