System likely to become named storm by this weekend

Odds increasing that our 5th named storm of the season will form by the weekend. A system of low pressure has been upgraded to an 80 percent chance of formation in the next five days. The next name on the list is Elsa. While this system is increasing is probability, the other tropical wave remains low in probability of formation at only 10 percent chance over the next five days.

Shown in red on the map above, a broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the Windward Islands. This system is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms that continues to show some signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days while the system moves west-northwestward at about 20 mph.

Shown in yellow in the top map, disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a tropical wave located just east of the Lesser Antilles. Significant development of this system is unlikely while it moves quickly westward to west-northwestward at 20 to 25 mph, passing through the Lesser Antilles today and then across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea later this week.