Tropical Update: Rain this afternoon from Gulf disturbance; Formation probability increases in Atlantic

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Our area will finally get a break from the extreme heat as storms move in this afternoon associated with the tropical wave off our coast, moving towards Texas. Storms today could be heavy/strong with localized minor flooding, gusty winds and dangerous lightning the main threats.

Here is Sunday morning’s update on the Tropics:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic continues to become better organized. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the early to the middle part of this week. This system is forecast to move westward at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic, approach the Windward Islands on Tuesday, and move across the southeastern Caribbean Sea on Wednesday and Thursday. Interests in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.

2. Northern Gulf of Mexico:
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending from southeastern Louisiana across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and the southern part of the Florida peninsula is associated with a trough of low pressure. Development of this system is expected to be slow to occur as it drifts westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico over the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.